Losing Faith

It seems that everything I read and hear these days is signaling the progressive erosion of support for the Obama administration. This is worrisome -- for the president, his advisers, his party and his supporters.

I did not vote for Obama. I never really caught on to his "hope" and "change" mantra. Frankly, it was a naive platform. It was what the country needed (psychologically), though.

A year into the Obama administration, things are much different than what 53% of American voters expected.

I am not an Obama hater, a "birther" or a Tea Party activist. The fringes terrify me. I do, however, feel bad for Obama. At the same time, he campaigned for the job. It would be nice if he started leading.

His agenda is in shambles: health care reform appears to be going nowhere. Letting the Congressional Democrats hijack the legislative process was a mistake. Climate change is on hold. Immigration reform? No one wants to mention it, let alone touch it. Some of his terrorism policies are even a continuation of the previous administration. Perhaps the Bush administration's intuition was right.

Obama clearly needs to shift tactics, change course and reassess his goals. This includes a staff shake-up. Efficiency and professionalism are far more important than loyalty and sycophancy.

All of these factors combined are not a good mix heading into midterm elections. As a pragmatic conservative, I worry the Republicans are not ready to govern. Democrats have proved incompetent, though. It is time our elected officials stop thinking in election cycles.

The State of Things

Approval Ratings

• The most recent Gallup poll shows a 50% approval rating and a 41% disapproval rating for Obama. [1]
• Obama's approval rating has hovered in the high-40s and low-50s since the late last summer, after the grueling nationwide health care debate. [2]
• Obama's approval numbers stand at "49 percent -- a loss of 18 points [from his standing last year at 67%] -- while his disapproval is 50 percent, a gain of 21 points [from his standing last year at 29%]." (Chris Cillizza, 2/16/2010)
• Currently, 78% of Americans disapprove of Congress while 18% approve according to Gallup. [3]
  

Midterm Election Outlook

• On a generic 2010 ballot, the two parties are currently tied at 45%. The incumbent Democrats are clearly vulnerable with a resurgent Republican party. [4]
• The enthusiasm gap is also favoring the Republicans: 56% of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in November, compared to 44% for the Democrats. [5]
• HOUSE: According to The Cook Political Report, Democrats currently have 50 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up; Republicans currently have 10 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. [6]
• SENATE: Democrats have five senators retiring.
  
• Two of these races (DE -- VP Biden's old senate seat -- and ND) are seen as likely GOP pick-ups. [7]
• Democrats have to defend seats in IL (Obama's old senate seat) and IN. [8]
• In CT, the Democrat has the advantage. [9]
  
• SENATE: Veteran senators in AR and NV face an uphill battle. [10]
  
• SENATE: Incumbent Democrats in CO and  PA are vulnerable due to internal Democratic primary challenges which may weaken them against the Republican challenger. [11]
• Sensing the urgency of maintaining the Senate, Obama will hit the campaign trail this week in CO and NV. [12]
• Even DNC Chair, Tim Kaine, is lowering expectations for the Democrats with his recent comments that "Presidential midterms since Teddy Roosevelt have been very tough. The average president loses 28 seats, four Senate seats and governors' races. And we're not living in average times. We're living in times of significant economic anxiety." [13]
  

[1] http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
[2] Ibid
[3] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125732/Congressional-Job-Approval.aspx
[4] http://www.gallup.com/poll/125726/Generic-Ballot-Congress.aspx
[5] http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx
[6] http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-02-08_14-28-59.php
[7] http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/02/how_the_gop_tak.php
[8] Ibid
[9] Ibid
[10] Ibid
[11] Ibid
[12] http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-obama-hits-campaign-trail-save-senate-majority/story?id=9868595
[13] http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/81813-dems-seek-to-lower-2010-expectations